Following on from our recent post "Will it be a soft landing or a dull thud?" further evidence about the state of the Perth/WA property market is emerging from the number of listings for sale on aussiehome.com:
- the total number of properties for sale peaked in October 2008 (7,929 were shown for sale on aussiehome.com that week)
- the total number of for sale listings hit a trough in February 2010 (4,428)
- this week we have 5,902 for sale (a rise of 12% off the bottom in 3 months)
- the total number of agencies that were on aussiehome.com during this time has remained fairly constant; with the number of listings per client averaging 41 (it is now at 48)
This 'half cyle' (from one peak to the next trough) measures 16 months in duration, suggesting a full cycle (one peak to another peak, or one trough to another trough) of 32 months (or 2 years 8 months) which is probably shorter than many of us would expect. So are we experiencing a "boomlet" snuffed out by the threat of higher interest rates, or price pressure? Maybe both.
With prices now almost back to what they were at the top of the last boom (December 2007's peak median price for Perth was $465,000; December 2009 data had the median price already back at $453,000), it would appear we have experienced a quick recovery from what was quite a rude shock, and things may go sideways for a while. A return to the 'Normal Market" we were all talking about in mid 2009?
Time will tell, but with interest rates strongly tipped to rise this week due to inflationary pressures, and some homeloaners already feeling the pinch, plus the increased amount of stock around, this could be a great time to buy. (There's always a silver lining.)